NOAA getting desperate?
Ok, somebody explain to me how it is that an ocean storm located at
37.8N, 64.9W is a Tropical Depression.Go ahead - I'll wait. Ah - well that's because it's a SUB tropical Depression and thus just
an ocean storm. NOAA must be getting desperate this late into the season that their
predictions for named storms is jetting into the crapper. They
already named one Sub Tropical Storm, first of the TD of the season -
now there is this one. And yeah, yeah, I know - height of the season is coming, yada, yada,
yada. I'm just saying... :>) |
Short
Jul 31
|
| I understand that. My point I guess, if I really had one, is that
NOAA does seem to be stretching a bit on some of these calls. I
believe that was SW Tom's point as well. It's not entirely irrelevant
either. By way of example, my insurance policy on the Grand Banks has
a clause whereby the deductible doubles for damage caused by a "named"
storm. There was in fact a study released within the last week which
purported to show that the number of Atlantic hurricanes has doubled
in the last 100 years. Although that is possible, it seems much more
likely that vastly improved detection methodology is responsible for
much of the increase. Thanks to satellite technology virtually no
weather disturbance goes undetected these days. |
Wayne.B
Jul 31
|
| Tom,
How many words and idioms do you know that make zero sense if you take
them literally? |
Reginald
Jul 31
|
| Your point was that NOAA was naming the storms to validate their
forecast. I was just pointing out that this is not new. I really can't
figure out what your point with "Yes Chuck" was or is. |
Reginald
Jul 31
|
| Tom, you been hanging with Harry a lot? It sounds like it. What's with the
'Chuck' crap? |
John
Jul 31
|
| It was a joke - like as in... Never mind. Sorry you were offended. I apologize. |
Short
Jul 31
|
| I spent the first twelve years of my life in the Midwest and I totally
agree. |
Short
Jul 31
|
| What are you...Chuck's nanny? |
Don
Jul 31
|
| When you mentioned that, I went and looked at my policy - my agreed on |
Short
Jul 31
|
| Hey! How did the weekend go? How's your mom doing? Hope all is well. No, Chuck doesn't need a nanny. And since Tom's already apologized, no more
need be said on the subject. |
John
Jul 31
|
| Or hit a boat that survived to tell the tale. Not all of them did. |
Wayne.B
Jul 31
|
| Deadliest storm ever was unknown until it hit Galveston.
http://www.1900storm.com/facts.lasso |
Calif
Aug 1
|
| Tom,
while I am not certain when these definition of Tropical Cyclone and
Tropical Depression originated, but based upon NOAA definitions it is a
tropical Depression if the Cyclone develops in tropical or Sub-Tropical
waters. Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over
tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a
closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once
formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat
energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low
temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from
extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal
temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects Tropical Depression:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed
(using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less. |
Reginald
Jul 31
|
| This definition from ( http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A1.html)
goes back to at least 1993, so it really isn't a new definition for
Tropical Storm. The terms "hurricane" and "typhoon" are regionally specific names for a
strong "tropical cyclone". A tropical cyclone is the generic term for a
non-frontal synoptic scale low-pressure system over tropical or
sub-tropical waters with organized convection (i.e. thunderstorm
activity) and definite cyclonic surface wind circulation (Holland 1993). Tropical cyclones with maximum sustained surface winds of less than 17
m/s (34 kt, 39 mph) are called "tropical depressions" (This is not to be
confused with the condition mid-latitude people get during a long, cold
and grey winter wishing they could be closer to the equator ;-)). Once
the tropical cyclone reaches winds of at least 17 m/s (34 kt, 39 mph)
they are typically called a "tropical storm" and assigned a name. If
winds reach 33 m/s (64 kt, 74 mph)), then they are called: "hurricane" (the North Atlantic Ocean, the Northeast Pacific Ocean east
of the dateline, or the South Pacific Ocean east of 160E)
"typhoon" (the Northwest Pacific Ocean west of the dateline)
"severe tropical cyclone" (the Southwest Pacific Ocean west of 160E or
Southeast Indian Ocean east of 90E)
"severe cyclonic storm" (the North Indian Ocean)
"tropical cyclone" (the Southwest Indian Ocean)
(Neumann 1993). |
Reginald
Jul 31
|
| Yes, and the next thing you know we'll be seeing another well
researched article showing that the number of tropical storms has
doubled. |
Wayne.B
Jul 31
|
| Wayne,
From what I can tell, the current definition of tropical storm goes
back to at least 1992, and probably is older. It describes a type of
storm, and the intensity of the storm and includes storms that develop
in the Tropics or the Subtropics. While the conditions are greatest for
a Tropical Storm to originate in the Tropics, it is not limited to the
Tropics. |
Reginald
Jul 31
|
| Wayne and Tom,
It appears that the definition used to include historical Tropical
Storms and Hurricanes from 1886 forward is the same one used today. 3. Data a. Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones The positions and intensities (sustained wind speed and minimum surface
pressure) of all Atlantic basin tropical cyclones of at least tropical
storm strength have been archived and are continually being updated by
the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida. (The `Atlantic
basin' is defined as the tropical and subtropical regions north of the
equator in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of
Mexico.) This data set extends from 1886 to 1990 and is described in
detail by Jarvinen et al. (1984). This ``Best Track'' data set (as it is
known since it is composed of the ``best'' estimate of positions and
intensities in a post-analysis of all data available) or HURDAT (short
for HURricane DATa) has been used quite extensively in our Tropical
Meteorology Project at Colorado State University. We have followed the recommendations by Neumann et al. (1987) to use
tropical cyclone statistics based upon data since the mid-1940's, when
organized aircraft reconnaissance began, since this ``probably best
represents Atlantic tropical cyclone frequencies''. The same logic
follows for the day to day assessment of the intensity of individual
storms; again because in the earlier period ``storms that were detected
could have been mis-classified as to intensity''. from: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/sahel/index.html |
Reginald
Jul 31
|
| Why worry? With all the poisonous foods and dangerous products being
imported from China, dangerous Rx drugs flooding our country, record
foreclosures, and millions of jobs being exported by corporate America,
we'll all be scrounging a third-world existence soon. |
HK
Jul 31
|
| And after year 2012 all will be fine. http://survive2012.com/ |
D.Duck
Jul 31
|
| Yes Chuck. |
Short
Jul 31
|
| Yes Chuck. |
Short
Jul 31
|
| If is doesn't originate in the tropics, then it isn't a tropical
storm. Relying on a definition that is a bizzllion years old doesn't make it
right. So Chuck, what's your next treatise? |
Short
Jul 31
|
| Yes - you've mentioned that more than once. Chuck. |
Short
Jul 31
|
| By the way, notice the term TROPICAL cyclone? TROPICAL? Here's the accepted definitions: Terms to Know
Tropical Distrubance-An unorganized area of thunderstorms in the
TROPICS that maintains itself for 24 hours. It is the first step in
hurricane development. Tropical Depression-A mass of thunderstorms with a weak cyclonic
circulation in the TROPICS with winds less than 39 mph. Last time I knew, 37.8N, 64.9W isn't tropical. And the storm formed
two degrees south of 37.8. The tropics are defined as: The geographic region of the Earth centered on the equator and limited
in latitude by the Tropic of Cancer in the northern hemisphere, at
approximately 23°30' (23.5°) N latitude, and the Tropic of Capricorn
in the southern hemisphere at 23°30' (23.5°) S latitude. This region
is also referred to as the tropical zone. |
Short
Jul 31
|
| following well considered thoughts to the readers of rec.boats: |
Gene
Jul 31
|
| That is certainly true in Florida. Your homeowners does not cover
damage from a "named storm". You need windstorm insurance. Like
"flood" that is a separate policy and windstorm may have a 5-10%
deductible. |
gfretwell
Jul 31
|
| Agreed. By their criteria, the storm of November 10th, 1975 in Lake Superior
should have been called a hurricane rather than a gale. The proper terminology should be gale. A gale is a very strong wind of at least 28 knots, 32 mph, or 51 km/h;
and up to 55 knots, 63 mph, or 102 km/h. It is divided into three or four categories: A moderate gale or near gale is up to 33 kt., 38 mph, or 61 km/h, and
a small craft advisory is issued.
A fresh gale or just gale is 34~40 kt., 39~46 mph, or 62~74 km/h, and
a gale warning is issued.
A strong gale is 41~47 kt., 47~54 mph, or 75~88 km/h, and usually a
gale warning is issued or maintained.
A whole gale or storm is 48 kt., 55 mph, or 89 km/h or greater, and a
storm warning is issued. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :>) |
Short
Jul 31
|
| "Chuck" ?????????? C'mon, Tom. That has no class at all. |
Jul 31
|
| I was in a storm in South Dakota last week that was every bit as
strong as several named storms I have been in. Lots of hail, 50-60mph
gusts and raining so hard I couldn't see across the road I was parked
next to. I seriously thought about putting that 4wd suburban in the
ditch if I heard the "freight train" coming.
It only lasted about 5 minutes but it was nasty. The difference
between that and a typical Florida afternoon storm was very little
lightning. |
gfretwell
Jul 31
|
| My understanding is that it there has to be "hurricane" warnings, not just a
named storm, some where in the state of Florida. |
D.Duck
Jul 31
|