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NOAA getting desperate?

Ok, somebody explain to me how it is that an ocean storm located at 37.8N, 64.9W is a Tropical Depression.

Go ahead - I'll wait.

Ah - well that's because it's a SUB tropical Depression and thus just an ocean storm.

NOAA must be getting desperate this late into the season that their predictions for named storms is jetting into the crapper. They already named one Sub Tropical Storm, first of the TD of the season - now there is this one.

And yeah, yeah, I know - height of the season is coming, yada, yada, yada.

I'm just saying... :>)

Short
Jul 31
I understand that. My point I guess, if I really had one, is that NOAA does seem to be stretching a bit on some of these calls. I believe that was SW Tom's point as well. It's not entirely irrelevant either. By way of example, my insurance policy on the Grand Banks has a clause whereby the deductible doubles for damage caused by a "named" storm. There was in fact a study released within the last week which purported to show that the number of Atlantic hurricanes has doubled in the last 100 years. Although that is possible, it seems much more likely that vastly improved detection methodology is responsible for much of the increase. Thanks to satellite technology virtually no weather disturbance goes undetected these days. Wayne.B
Jul 31
Tom, How many words and idioms do you know that make zero sense if you take them literally? Reginald
Jul 31
Your point was that NOAA was naming the storms to validate their forecast. I was just pointing out that this is not new. I really can't figure out what your point with "Yes Chuck" was or is. Reginald
Jul 31
Tom, you been hanging with Harry a lot? It sounds like it. What's with the 'Chuck' crap? John
Jul 31
It was a joke - like as in...

Never mind.

Sorry you were offended. I apologize.

Short
Jul 31
I spent the first twelve years of my life in the Midwest and I totally agree. Short
Jul 31
What are you...Chuck's nanny? Don
Jul 31
When you mentioned that, I went and looked at my policy - my agreed on Short
Jul 31
Hey! How did the weekend go? How's your mom doing? Hope all is well.

No, Chuck doesn't need a nanny. And since Tom's already apologized, no more need be said on the subject.

John
Jul 31
Or hit a boat that survived to tell the tale. Not all of them did. Wayne.B
Jul 31
Deadliest storm ever was unknown until it hit Galveston. http://www.1900storm.com/facts.lasso Calif
Aug 1
Tom, while I am not certain when these definition of Tropical Cyclone and Tropical Depression originated, but based upon NOAA definitions it is a tropical Depression if the Cyclone develops in tropical or Sub-Tropical waters.

Tropical Cyclone: A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects

Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

Reginald
Jul 31
This definition from ( http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A1.html) goes back to at least 1993, so it really isn't a new definition for Tropical Storm.

The terms "hurricane" and "typhoon" are regionally specific names for a strong "tropical cyclone". A tropical cyclone is the generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale low-pressure system over tropical or sub-tropical waters with organized convection (i.e. thunderstorm activity) and definite cyclonic surface wind circulation (Holland 1993).

Tropical cyclones with maximum sustained surface winds of less than 17 m/s (34 kt, 39 mph) are called "tropical depressions" (This is not to be confused with the condition mid-latitude people get during a long, cold and grey winter wishing they could be closer to the equator ;-)). Once the tropical cyclone reaches winds of at least 17 m/s (34 kt, 39 mph) they are typically called a "tropical storm" and assigned a name. If winds reach 33 m/s (64 kt, 74 mph)), then they are called:

"hurricane" (the North Atlantic Ocean, the Northeast Pacific Ocean east of the dateline, or the South Pacific Ocean east of 160E) "typhoon" (the Northwest Pacific Ocean west of the dateline) "severe tropical cyclone" (the Southwest Pacific Ocean west of 160E or Southeast Indian Ocean east of 90E) "severe cyclonic storm" (the North Indian Ocean) "tropical cyclone" (the Southwest Indian Ocean) (Neumann 1993).

Reginald
Jul 31
Yes, and the next thing you know we'll be seeing another well researched article showing that the number of tropical storms has doubled. Wayne.B
Jul 31
Wayne, From what I can tell, the current definition of tropical storm goes back to at least 1992, and probably is older. It describes a type of storm, and the intensity of the storm and includes storms that develop in the Tropics or the Subtropics. While the conditions are greatest for a Tropical Storm to originate in the Tropics, it is not limited to the Tropics. Reginald
Jul 31
Wayne and Tom, It appears that the definition used to include historical Tropical Storms and Hurricanes from 1886 forward is the same one used today.

3. Data

a. Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

The positions and intensities (sustained wind speed and minimum surface pressure) of all Atlantic basin tropical cyclones of at least tropical storm strength have been archived and are continually being updated by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida. (The `Atlantic basin' is defined as the tropical and subtropical regions north of the equator in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.) This data set extends from 1886 to 1990 and is described in detail by Jarvinen et al. (1984). This ``Best Track'' data set (as it is known since it is composed of the ``best'' estimate of positions and intensities in a post-analysis of all data available) or HURDAT (short for HURricane DATa) has been used quite extensively in our Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University.

We have followed the recommendations by Neumann et al. (1987) to use tropical cyclone statistics based upon data since the mid-1940's, when organized aircraft reconnaissance began, since this ``probably best represents Atlantic tropical cyclone frequencies''. The same logic follows for the day to day assessment of the intensity of individual storms; again because in the earlier period ``storms that were detected could have been mis-classified as to intensity''.

from:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/sahel/index.html

Reginald
Jul 31
Why worry? With all the poisonous foods and dangerous products being imported from China, dangerous Rx drugs flooding our country, record foreclosures, and millions of jobs being exported by corporate America, we'll all be scrounging a third-world existence soon. HK
Jul 31
And after year 2012 all will be fine.

http://survive2012.com/

D.Duck
Jul 31
Yes Chuck. Short
Jul 31
Yes Chuck. Short
Jul 31
If is doesn't originate in the tropics, then it isn't a tropical storm.

Relying on a definition that is a bizzllion years old doesn't make it right.

So Chuck, what's your next treatise?

Short
Jul 31
Yes - you've mentioned that more than once.

Chuck.

Short
Jul 31
By the way, notice the term TROPICAL cyclone?

TROPICAL?

Here's the accepted definitions:

Terms to Know Tropical Distrubance-An unorganized area of thunderstorms in the TROPICS that maintains itself for 24 hours. It is the first step in hurricane development.

Tropical Depression-A mass of thunderstorms with a weak cyclonic circulation in the TROPICS with winds less than 39 mph.

Last time I knew, 37.8N, 64.9W isn't tropical. And the storm formed two degrees south of 37.8.

The tropics are defined as:

The geographic region of the Earth centered on the equator and limited in latitude by the Tropic of Cancer in the northern hemisphere, at approximately 23°30' (23.5°) N latitude, and the Tropic of Capricorn in the southern hemisphere at 23°30' (23.5°) S latitude. This region is also referred to as the tropical zone.

Short
Jul 31
following well considered thoughts to the readers of rec.boats: Gene
Jul 31
That is certainly true in Florida. Your homeowners does not cover damage from a "named storm". You need windstorm insurance. Like "flood" that is a separate policy and windstorm may have a 5-10% deductible. gfretwell
Jul 31
Agreed.

By their criteria, the storm of November 10th, 1975 in Lake Superior should have been called a hurricane rather than a gale.

The proper terminology should be gale.

A gale is a very strong wind of at least 28 knots, 32 mph, or 51 km/h; and up to 55 knots, 63 mph, or 102 km/h.

It is divided into three or four categories:

A moderate gale or near gale is up to 33 kt., 38 mph, or 61 km/h, and a small craft advisory is issued. A fresh gale or just gale is 34~40 kt., 39~46 mph, or 62~74 km/h, and a gale warning is issued. A strong gale is 41~47 kt., 47~54 mph, or 75~88 km/h, and usually a gale warning is issued or maintained. A whole gale or storm is 48 kt., 55 mph, or 89 km/h or greater, and a storm warning is issued.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :>)

Short
Jul 31
"Chuck" ??????????

C'mon, Tom. That has no class at all.

Jul 31
I was in a storm in South Dakota last week that was every bit as strong as several named storms I have been in. Lots of hail, 50-60mph gusts and raining so hard I couldn't see across the road I was parked next to. I seriously thought about putting that 4wd suburban in the ditch if I heard the "freight train" coming. It only lasted about 5 minutes but it was nasty. The difference between that and a typical Florida afternoon storm was very little lightning. gfretwell
Jul 31
My understanding is that it there has to be "hurricane" warnings, not just a named storm, some where in the state of Florida. D.Duck
Jul 31
   

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